"In 2011 there were eight people with bird flu supsek, but after the treatment was positive for the H5N1 virus, was until early 2012 there was no suspect AI,"
http://tinyurl.com/86lcgb2
Indonesia classifies their confirmed cases after they have been on Tamiflu and have returned a negative result. Only when they arrive too late and die, are they confirmed "positive" of H5N1 Bird Flu.
They go into the hospital sick, having all the correct signs, being around infected poultry, or, another person who is "suspected". They get put on Tamiflu, after 3 more days, they get tested again, and usually it returns a Negative result. And that is what the Authorities record.
Then you read articles like this...and shake your head....
Based on data from Central Java health office, during 2005-2011 recorded 120 persons declared suspected bird flu, but who tested positive for avian influenza (AI) as many as 14 people. Of the 14 men, 13 died. With details of 2006 as many as three persons, 2007 as many as five people, three people in 2008, 2009 and 2010 of each one.
1 comment:
It is hard to say whether the strain in Indonesia has particularly high mortality or whether their strange numbers are due to their quasi-Chinese "reporting style." The type of diagnostic tests being done would be highly relevant, since blood tests from what I have heard are not reliable and post-mortem biopsy of lung tissue is, although chest X-rays on living patients are supposed to be sufficient. Of most interest is whether there are signs of the virus showing up in the upper respiratory tract, but even Viet Nam does not report this and the reason may be similar to that of the US not disclosing the gene sequences from the Fouchier study. Until the reporting style becomes much more informative, I am going to assume a pandemic may emerge at any time with authorities slapping their foreheads (or pretending to) and exclaiming about how they could not have expected such a thing to happen. It is frustrating to me because people are not easily moved from their blissful ignorance of how serious this could become, and it seems like this will continue until trade and travel are physically shut down. The desperation of that situation can only be mitigated by early preparation now, before the pandemic begins. My confidence in any sort of government response will be nonexistent. If it is allowed to unfold without warning, I will not listen to a thing they have to say. For less informed people than me, perhaps the conspiracy theorists will fill the information gaps that government refuses to close frankly and properly.
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